Churchdowns Picks Nov 5: Expert Handicapper’s Full Card

Horse Racing Picks Today at Churchill Downs for Thursday, November 5.

Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh has released his full-card analysis for the Thursday, November 5 racing card at Churchill Downs.

Hersh’s selections include projected 1-2-3 finishers for all 10 races on the card.

His best bet of the day comes from Race 5.

BEST BET: MERITED (5TH RACE)

Hersh projects the following order of finish for Race 5: 1.

Merited, 2. Ghostwritten, 3. Big Apple Patrick.

According to Hersh, Merited did everything right winning his lone start, a $50,000 maiden claiming race at Churchill Downs.

Hersh wrote that Merited won “pretty easily with something to spare.”

He noted that it is no wonder the horse is coming back in a non-winners-of-one starter race.

Hersh predicted Merited will improve here and be a handful — and at a fair price, too, with sloppy-track superstar Hillbilly Daydream taking so much action.

Hersh wrote that all that is needed to get to Ghostwritten is putting a line through the route try last out, adding that two previous sprints fit here.

He described Big Apple Patrick as “a somewhat funky mover with a sprawling body type,” but noted the horse won its lone sprint start and has looked all right on work video prepping for this long-layoff comeback start.

RACE 1 ANALYSIS

Hersh projects the following order of finish for Race 1: 1.

Buckeye Favorite, 2. Muriel Sax, 3. Flaming Mama.

He wrote that runners often come back short after a long layoff but use waiver claiming to get a race into them before dropping down in class and winning second time back.

Hersh said he knows Buckeye Favorite “has it in her — or had it” based on first two starts, races he called superior to anything anyone else in this race has produced.

He noted that Muriel Sax has a disturbing number of performances where she was beaten a long way, culminating in being vanned off last time.

Hersh wrote that if the vets let her run, we have to assume she can perform, and on the other pole from those dismal showings are several runs that could win this.

He called the move from Belterra to Churchill perhaps not ideal, but said a poor start proved the undoing of Flaming Mama last out.

RACE 2 ANALYSIS

Hersh projects the following order of finish for Race 2: 1.

Sleeper, 2. Unknown Mischief, 3. Cougar Magnet.

He noted that Sleeper is a $1,000 sales purchase debuting for $50,000, and wrote: “You love to see it!”

Hersh said neither of the two workout videos up for bargain-rack buy Sleeper is the 59-second bullet 5-furlong workout on Oct. 16, but he liked the way the horse breezed in both of them, taking into account the class level.

He noted that Sleeper’s partner in the Oct. 24 gate drill might not be much horse.

Hersh wrote that no work video is up for first-timer Unknown Mischief because the horse is based with trainer P Lobo at the Training Center.

He said the pattern — albeit with an eyebrow-raising number of gate works — and times seem encouraging enough, and noted that this is a $19,000 sales buy debuting for $50,000.

ADDITIONAL CONTEXT ON CHURCHILL DOWNS

Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, is one of the most famous horse racing venues in the United States.

The track hosts the Kentucky Derby each year on the first Saturday in May.

Thursday’s card is part of the fall meet, which runs from late October through late November.

Races at Churchill Downs are run on both dirt and turf surfaces, depending on the race conditions.

Claiming races, like those featured in several races on this card, allow horses to be purchased by new owners for a set price before the race begins.

Maiden races are for horses that have never won a race.

Starter races are restricted to horses that have started for a specific claiming price in their previous race.

Allowance races are for horses that have won races but are not yet at the stakes level.

Beyer Speed Figures, mentioned in handicapping analysis, are a standard measure of a horse’s performance based on final time and track condition.

Morning line odds are the odds set by the track handicapper before betting begins, serving as an estimate of how the public will bet.

THE FULL CARD APPROACH

Hersh’s analysis covers all 10 races on the Thursday card.

His selections are based on past performances, workout patterns, trainer statistics, and class considerations.

Hersh is a veteran handicapper with Daily Racing Form, the industry standard publication for horse racing past performances and analysis.

The Pressbox also published handicapper Gene McLean’s selections for the same Churchill Downs card on Thursday.

McLean’s selections include betting strategies for each race, including win-place-show bets, exacta boxes, and key horse wagering.

McLean’s betting strategies for the card include: Race 1: bet 3-6 WPS or box 3-6-7; Race 2: bet 5 WPS or key 5 over 4-8-7; Race 3: bet 2 WPS or box 2-8 Stern or key 2-8 over 6-3-7; Race 4: bet 1 WPS or double WPS or box 1-5-7 or key 1-5-7 over 6; Race 5: bet 5-1 WPS or double WPS on 5 or box 5-1-7; Race 6: bet 10 WPS or double WPS on 10 or key 10 over 3-9-11-8; Race 7: bet 11 WPS or box 11-5-2 or key 11-5-2 over 9-8; Race 8: bet 7-1 WPS or double WPS on 1 or box 7-1 Stern; Race 9: bet 1 WP or double win or box 1-8 Stern x 2; Race 10: bet 6-1 WPS or double WPS on 6 or box 6-1-8 Stern.

McLean also provided comments for each race.

For Race 1, he noted that with the scratch of the 2 horse, he diverts to the 3 horse, but added that the trainer wins only 0.02% of 53 starts, calling it a “double ugh.”

For Race 2, he noted that with scratches of 6 and 2, the 5 horse looks best, is ridden by an apprentice jockey, and ran second in its only start.

For Race 3, he noted that the 2 horse ran second in its last out by many lengths, but could be tough here and loves Churchill Downs.

For Race 4, he noted that the 1 horse has been off, but the barn wins 17% in returns, and the rider wins 33% for the barn.