Elly De La Cruz and Gunnar Henderson Are Baseball’s Hottest Trade Bait

Gunnar Henderson and Elly De La Cruz Are This Offseason's Most Interesting Trade Chips.

If you’re anything like us here at FanGraphs HQ, you also spent days agonizing over our annual list of the top 50 free agents on the market this winter.

Arguing whether Carson Kelly or Tyler Stephenson should be ranked higher is our unalienable right as sovereign citizens, and it’s also a whole lot of harmless fun.

But you may have also noticed, unlike the 2022 ultra-free-agent class that included Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, and Trevor Story, the pickings are quite slim at shortstop this year.

Mauricio Dubón and J.P. Crawford — useful, but not building-block players — are the best the position has to offer.

As such, any team with a shortstop-sized hole on its roster would be wiser to peruse the trade market, where two young players with immense talent but without long-term contracts could aptly fill in: Gunnar Henderson of the Orioles and Elly De La Cruz of the Reds.

Let’s begin with Henderson.

The onetime wunderkind has had an alarming decline in production since putting up 7.9 WAR and a 154 wRC+ as a 23-year-old in 2024.

That season — which also came with a .281 batting average, 21 stolen bases, and a fourth-place MVP finish — serves as a reminder of what he is capable of.

But a quick check of both his traditional stats and the peripherals shows that he has not been the same hitter since.

Part of that, as Henderson revealed after this season, Baltimore’s second straight below .500, has been the result of shoulder and wrist injuries.

Diving for a ball in 2025 caused a shoulder impingement that Henderson said negatively influenced his bat plane, and he spent half of 2026 playing with a barking wrist.

Davy Andrews covered Henderson’s ailments in depth at the beginning of October, and a fully healed Henderson could certainly bounce back in 2027, but as he tried to grit his way through the last two campaigns, his performance has not been commensurate with that of a superstar player.

In the two seasons since his peak, the home run totals have sagged from 37 to 17 and 24, respectively, and his collective slugging percentage is over 100 points lower, going from .529 in 2024 to a lethargic .420 across ’25 and ’26.

However you slice the advanced numbers, too, they’re unappetizing.

By wRC+, wOBA, xwOBA, xSLG — and perhaps most indicative of physical troubles, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate — Henderson has taken a noticeable step back.

So too has his ballclub, which finished below .500 for the second straight year.

Now consider De La Cruz.

The Reds shortstop was named a finalist for the 2026 Silver Slugger Award at his position, despite Cincinnati’s offense ranking among baseball’s weakest.

De La Cruz posted a .283/.365/.515 slash line with 30 home runs and 79 RBIs in 143 games this season.

He is up against CJ Abrams and Otto Lopez for the National League shortstop Silver Slugger.

Abrams hit 33 home runs and drove in 106 RBIs, giving him an edge in power production.

But De La Cruz is only 24 years old, under team control through 2030, and has already made two All-Star teams.

His future in Cincinnati has been a hot topic this offseason.

Former Reds players, national markets, and even leaks about teams interested in acquiring the two-time All-Star have fueled speculation.

The fan base has even shown strong support for moving on from their best player, citing the Reds' small-market issues and lack of direction as evidence he won't re-sign with the Reds when he can test free agency.

While all of that is true, it just doesn't feel like it is the right time for the Reds to move on from Elly, according to Sports Illustrated.

Sure, they could get a haul from teams, since he is one of the best players in baseball, but why rush?

The Reds currently control De La Cruz until 2030.

Although the future of Major League Baseball is up in the air, Elly should still be with the Reds whenever the 2027 season begins.

If the Reds do decide to move on from Elly, why not wait until at least 2029, see where they stand competitively, and get the most out of him while he's in their uniform?

Simply put, if the Reds want any chance of being a winning team in 2027, they will need Elly to be on their roster.

While many think this is unlikely, and understandably so, the team should be willing to roll the dice with him on the roster.

You'll be hard-pressed to fill that roster spot, even with the abundance of shortstops in the organization.

The other issue is that even with the aforementioned group of middle infielders they have drafted over the years, the few who have had chances to play at the big league level have left a lot to be desired.

Edwin Arroyo was called up this year when Elly went on the IL, and had a .549 OPS in 160 plate appearances.

Matt McLain is naturally a shortstop but has made a solid double-play duo with Elly as the Reds' everyday second baseman.

Also, since his shoulder injury in 2024, he has struggled at the plate over the last two seasons.

Noelvi Marte has been moved to right field, and while he has shown glimpses of his talent, he hasn't shown much reason for hope for his major league future.

The Reds' farm system has talented shortstops, but none of them are particularly close to being Major League ready.

The Reds selected Steele Hall and Justin LeBron with their first-round picks in the last two MLB Drafts.

Both guys have given reasons for hope, but are currently in Single-A ball.

Tyson Lewis, Eric Becker, and Liberts Aponte also identify as shortstops, but none of them are close to the majors.

For the Orioles, the calculus is different but equally complicated.

Henderson is under team control through 2028, meaning Baltimore has two more seasons before he hits free agency.

If the Orioles believe his shoulder and wrist issues are chronic rather than temporary, trading him now could yield a better return than waiting for his value to drop further.

But if Henderson returns to his 2024 form in 2027, trading him would be a catastrophic mistake.