Henderson and De La Cruz Could Reshape MLB This Winter

Gunnar Henderson and Elly De La Cruz Are This Offseason's Most Interesting Trade Chips.

If you're anything like us here at FanGraphs HQ, you also spent days agonizing over our annual list of the top 50 free agents on the market this winter.

Arguing whether Carson Kelly or Tyler Stephenson should be ranked higher is our unalienable right as sovereign citizens, and it's also a whole lot of harmless fun.

But you may have also noticed, unlike the 2022 ultra-free-agent class that included Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, and Trevor Story, the pickings are quite slim at shortstop this year.

Mauricio Dubón and J.P. Crawford — useful, but not building-block players — are the best the position has to offer.

As such, any team with a shortstop-sized hole on its roster would be wiser to peruse the trade market, where two young players with immense talent but without long-term contracts could aptly fill in: Gunnar Henderson of the Orioles and Elly De La Cruz of the Reds.

Let's begin with Henderson.

The onetime wunderkind has had an alarming decline in production since putting up 7.9 WAR and a 154 wRC+ as a 23-year-old in 2024.

That season — which also came with a .281 batting average, 21 stolen bases, and a fourth-place MVP finish — serves as a reminder of what he is capable of.

But a quick check of both his traditional stats and the peripherals shows that he has not been the same hitter since.

Part of that, as Henderson revealed after this season, Baltimore's second straight below .500, has been the result of shoulder and wrist injuries.

Diving for a ball in 2025 caused a shoulder impingement that Henderson said negatively influenced his bat plane, and he spent half of 2026 playing with a barking wrist.

Davy Andrews covered Henderson's ailments in depth at the beginning of October, and a fully healed Henderson could certainly bounce back in 2027, but as he tried to grit his way through the last two campaigns, his performance has not been commensurate with that of a superstar player.

In the two seasons since his peak, the home run totals have sagged from 37 to 17 and 24, respectively, and his collective slugging percentage is over 100 points lower, going from .529 in 2024 to a lethargic .420 across '25 and '26.

However you slice the advanced numbers, too, they're unappetizing.

By wRC+, wOBA, xwOBA, xSLG — and perhaps most indicative of physical troubles, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate — Henderson has taken a noticeable step back.

So too has his ballclub, which went 79-83 in 2025 and 78-84 in 2026, missing the playoffs both years.

Now consider De La Cruz.

The Reds shortstop is a Silver Slugger finalist for 2026, despite Cincinnati's offense ranking among baseball's weakest.

De La Cruz posted a .283/.365/.515 slash line with 30 home runs and 79 RBIs in 143 games.

He became the Reds' fourth 30-30 player, a milestone that puts him in rare franchise company.

The National League shortstop finalists are De La Cruz, CJ Abrams, and Otto Lopez.

Abrams hit 33 home runs with 106 RBIs, giving him an edge in traditional power production, but De La Cruz's combination of speed and power at a premium defensive position makes him uniquely valuable.

The Silver Slugger winners will be announced on November 17.

De La Cruz would be the first Reds shortstop to win the award since Felipe Lopez in 2005.

Hall of Fame Reds shortstop Barry Larkin won the Silver Slugger a record nine times.

But the story here isn't just about individual honors.

The trade market for shortstops this winter is historically thin.

Free agency offers Mauricio Dubón and J.P. Crawford as the top options — both useful players, but neither is a building block.

That means any team looking for a long-term answer at shortstop has to go the trade route.

And the two most compelling trade chips at the position are Henderson and De La Cruz.

Both are young. Both are under team control for multiple seasons.

Both have shown superstar ceilings.

But both also come with questions.

Henderson's injuries have sapped his production for two straight years.

De La Cruz plays for a Reds team that finished last in the NL Central and is reportedly open to reshaping its roster.

The Orioles, meanwhile, have missed the playoffs two years running after winning 101 games in 2023.

Baltimore's front office may decide that a reset — or a retooling — is necessary.

A trade involving either player would reshape the balance of power in either league.

For a contender with a shortstop need — think the Dodgers, the Braves, or the Red Sox — acquiring Henderson or De La Cruz could be the move that puts them over the top.

For a rebuilding team, dealing one of these players could bring back a haul of prospects that accelerates a rebuild.