Kyle Larson on the Brink of a Third NASCAR Cup Title

Kyle Larson is nine points away from winning his third NASCAR Cup Series championship.

That is the smallest possible cushion a driver can have entering the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

If Larson scores nine points on Sunday, the title is his.

If he finishes 28th or better without any stage points, the title is his.

If he collects eight points in the first two stages alone, the title is his before the final stage even begins.

His two challengers, Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin, face a single path to the trophy.

They must win the race.

There is no other mathematical scenario that puts either of them ahead of Larson at the checkered flag.

Bell trails Larson by 67 points.

Hamlin trails by 70 points.

Both drive for Joe Gibbs Racing.

Both have won at Homestead before.

Hamlin has three Homestead wins — 2009, 2013 and 2020.

Bell won the Homestead race in 2023.

Larson won there last March and is the defending race champion.

All three drivers have won at the 1.5-mile South Florida oval in the last eight events held there.

But the numbers this postseason belong to Larson.

During the nine Chase races so far, Larson has three wins.

His average finish in those nine races is 6.8.

That is the best in the field.

Hamlin’s average finish during the Chase is 11.2.

Bell’s is 11.5.

Larson also leads the field in laps led at Homestead with 645.

He entered the Chase on a 51-race winless streak.

Since the Chase started, he has answered with three victories.

His average point total per Chase race is 47.1.

Bell’s is 39.1.

Hamlin has one statistical edge.

On 1.5-mile tracks this season, Hamlin has earned 51 more points than Larson and 84 more than Bell.

Hamlin has 16 career wins on that style of venue.

Larson has 11.

Bell has two.

But that advantage has not closed the gap in the standings.

Larson’s margin is so wide that NASCAR did something unusual for Championship Media Day.

They only invited Larson.

Bell and Hamlin were allowed to skip the event.

Larson sat alone on stage at Homestead-Miami Speedway on Thursday taking questions by himself.

“Yeah, it's definitely been the most unique media day for me,” Larson said.

“In the past it's been the Final Four and you're there and you don't really know -- all you know is you just have to beat them on the track, where this you're still having points involved and all that, it's different, but then the gap that is there, yeah, I'm solo, which is a great thing.”

He called the situation awkward but earned.

“But yeah, I'll be honest, it's an awkward sort of media day for me but we've earned the right for it to be awkward. I like awkwardness, or I'm okay with it. It's alright.”

Hamlin had already summed up the dynamic on Sunday night at Martinsville.

He called the remaining championship proceedings a “dog and pony show.”

Bell said on the same day, “I think we know,” when asked how the championship would play out.

NASCAR’s decision to let Bell and Hamlin skip media day reinforced that sentiment.

Larson is 33 years old and drives the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet.

A third title would be his second consecutive championship.

He won his first title in 2021.

He won his second in 2025.

The 2026 season finale takes place Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

The race starts at 3 p.m. ET.

NBC, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio will carry the broadcast.

Larson has been adamant that he is taking nothing for granted.

“I think it's good to have an activity, whatever it may be, to keep your mind off of the sport that you're into because it can be pressure-packed and you can overthink it a lot of times,” Larson told FOX Sports.

He is training for his first marathon.

On December 6, four weeks after the season finale, Larson will run the California International Marathon from Folsom to Sacramento.

That route passes near his hometown of Elk Grove.

He has been running 40-plus miles per week during the postseason.

Before Friday’s practice session at Homestead, he planned to run 15 miles along the Florida coast.

His crew chief, Cliff Daniels, has noted that Larson is trying to get him to run a half-marathon in Daytona.

Larson said the marathon training helps keep his mind off racing.

“It's been fun to have this sort of going on in the background and fun to be committed to the training of it and to also keep my mind off of racing,” he said.

Hamlin and Bell both expressed confidence despite the long odds.

“I feel confident that I’ll be able to go there and contend,” Hamlin said.

Bell pointed to his team’s resilience.

“My team has done a really good job,” Bell said.

“They’re resilient, they’re just really resilient.

“They’ve shown throughout the years that whenever it matters the most, they show up in the biggest ways.”

Bell added that he is proud of where the team stands but wants more.

“I’m proud of where we’re at, and certainly proud that we’ve been so close year in and year out, but we do want to get that golden egg.”

The Chase format returned to NASCAR this season.

Under the Chase, the field is narrowed to 12 drivers for the final 10 races.

Points accumulate across those 10 races.

The driver with the most points after the Homestead finale wins the championship.

There is no elimination round.

There is no winner-take-all final race.

That format allowed Larson to build a lead that now appears insurmountable.

Under the old elimination format used from 2014 through 2025, the final four drivers entered the last race with their points reset.

The highest finisher among them won the title.

That format guaranteed drama at Homestead every year.

This year, the drama is about whether anyone can stop Larson from clinching early.

If Larson scores eight points in the first two stages, the championship is mathematically decided before the final stage.

Stage points are awarded to the top 10 finishers in each stage.

First place gets 10 points, second gets nine, and so on down to one point for 10th.

A driver can also earn points for finishing position in the race itself.

Larson needs a combination of stage points and finishing position that totals nine.

That is a low bar for a driver who has averaged 47.1 points per Chase race.