Kyle Larson’s Chase Stats Send a Clear Warning to Title Rivals

Kyle Larson’s stunning numbers during the NASCAR Cup Series Chase have sent an unmistakable warning to his championship rivals.

According to statistics shared by NASCAR Insights, Larson averaged 27.8 points per race across the 26-race regular season.

Through nine Chase races, that figure has skyrocketed to 47.1.

That is a staggering improvement of 19.3 points per race, nearly double the increase of any other driver in the 16-driver field.

Christopher Bell has made the next-biggest jump, improving from 29.2 points per race during the regular season to 39.1 in the Chase, a 10-point increase when rounded.

Joey Logano has also stepped up considerably, climbing from 27.3 to 36.8 points per race.

Chase Briscoe, meanwhile, has improved from 29.3 to 36.7.

But Larson’s numbers stand apart for another reason.

His 47.1-point average is eight points higher than Bell’s 39.1, giving him a substantial advantage over the next-best driver in the Chase.

Consider where Larson started.

During the regular season, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick, Ty Gibbs, Briscoe and Bell all averaged more points per race than the No. 5 driver.

Nine Chase races later, Larson has surpassed every one of them.

Larson’s surge looks even more impressive when compared with Hamlin’s performance.

The Joe Gibbs Racing veteran was the most productive points scorer among Chase drivers during the regular season, averaging 39.5 points per race.

Since the Chase began, that number has dropped to 33.2, a decline of 6.3 points per race.

Hamlin isn’t alone.

Blaney has fallen from 36.1 to 29.0 points per race, while Gibbs has dropped from 34.3 to 27.7.

Reddick’s average has also slipped, declining from 34.4 to 31.0.

Even Chase Elliott has experienced a modest downturn, going from 27.8 points per race to 25.3.

Those numbers don’t necessarily tell the entire story, but they paint a clear picture of a driver who has found another gear when it matters most.

Larson holds a 67-point lead over Bell heading into the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

He needs only nine points to secure his second consecutive Cup title and third in six years.

He will get one point for starting the race and could earn more based on where he finishes the opening stage.

Even if Larson struggles — unlikely considering he has two wins and six top-five finishes in 12 starts at the track — either Bell or Hamlin would need to accumulate significant points to catch him.

The maximum points for a race is 76.

That kind of cushion has removed most of the drama from the finale, which returned to Homestead this season after six years in Phoenix.

Larson’s championship media day at Homestead-Miami Speedway on Thursday reflected that reality.

He was the lone Cup Series “contender” on hand for the event.

Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin, both technically still in the mix for the title, were excused.

So Larson was alone on the stage, the first time that’s happened since NASCAR moved to a playoff format more than two decades ago.

“We’ve earned the right for it to be awkward,” Larson quipped. “I like awkwardness.”

But Larson insisted he’s still feeling some pressure.

“Man, you’ve done such great work to this point to put yourself in position,” Larson said.

“I would just hate for something crazy to happen, to eliminate all the work that we’ve gone to get ourselves in a great position to where you don’t have to score a ton of points.

“I think that’s the pressure. Like, man, don’t (screw) it up at this point.”

He expects those butterflies to end once he slides into his No. 5 Chevrolet, locks in and forgets about “what’s at stake.”

“I foresee my race looking like any other Homestead race for me: try to get to the front and manage the race from there,” he said.

“Hopefully the first stage goes well and then you can really just race free after that. I still don’t think it’s going to change the approach of the race, but you can race with less worry at that point.”

Larson essentially could end up turning hundreds of “victory laps.”

He is trying to become the 11th driver in NASCAR history with three Cup titles, joining a list that includes seven-time champs Richard Petty, Dale Earnhardt and Jimmie Johnson.

Jeff Gordon has four.

Lee Petty, David Pearson, Cale Yarborough, Darrell Waltrip, Tony Stewart and Joey Logano have three.

“More people have [won] the Daytona 500 than have three championships,” Larson said.

For much of the 2026 season, Larson had little reason to feel comfortable about his title defense.

The No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet went winless through the regular season, and Larson entered The Chase seventh, 55 points behind Denny Hamlin.

Nine races later, he has turned that deficit into a 70-point advantage over the same rival.

The turnaround has come through speed and execution, but his approach to the pressure has also changed.

“I do think it’s kept my mind off of racing, which has been good because I think I have this other thing that I’m like equally committed to,” Larson told Bob Pockrass for NASCAR on FOX.

“Probably honestly put way more thought behind this marathon than I do the Chase, which I think has kept a lot of pressure off of me, oddly.

“I’ve definitely felt pressure, but I’ve felt more pressure in other years, and I think a lot of it’s just to do with my mind is on something else, but I’m not distracted from it either because I think it’s all kind of benefiting Sundays in a way.”

Pockrass reported that Larson is training for the California International Marathon on December 6 and has been logging more than 40 miles a week.