Kyle Larson’s Homestead title is already slipping away

A third NASCAR Cup Series championship is directly ahead of Kyle Larson.

He just needs to stay out of trouble at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

But he can still lose it if he’s not careful.

Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin face a very narrow path to the title.

There is still a path there.

Larson leads Bell by 67 points and Hamlin by 70.

A driver can score a maximum of 76 points at Homestead.

Every starter is awarded one point.

Because Larson holds the tiebreaker over both drivers, nine points guarantees him the championship.

For context, keep in mind that Hamlin has never scored more than 43 points over Larson in any race this year.

That happened at Indianapolis.

Bell’s largest gain was a 46-point swing at Phoenix.

Here’s what each contender needs at Homestead.

HOW KYLE LARSON CAN SECURE THE TITLE

If Larson scores eight stage points, he guarantees himself at least nine total points and clinches the championship.

He can do that by finishing third in Stage 1 or 2, or as low as seventh in both stages.

Larson can clinch the title by finishing 28th or higher, regardless of stage points.

The fastest-lap bonus reduces either requirement by one point.

That means seven stage points or a 29th-place finish would also be enough.

Larson holds the championship tiebreaker over both Bell and Hamlin.

He drives the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet.

WHAT CHRISTOPHER BELL MUST DO IF LARSON FALTERS

Bell must score at least 14 stage points if he wins the race.

That is unless he also earns the fastest-lap bonus.

Bell must win the race and score at least 14 of a possible 20 stage points.

Or 13 stage points plus the fastest-lap bonus.

Bell will be eliminated from contention if he doesn’t finish eighth or higher in Stage 1.

None of this matters if Larson finishes 28th or higher, or scores at least eight stage points.

Bell drives for Joe Gibbs Racing.

WHAT DENNY HAMLIN MUST DO IF LARSON FALTERS

Hamlin must score at least 17 stage points if he wins the race.

That is unless he also earns the fastest-lap bonus.

Hamlin must win the race and score at least 17 of a possible 20 stage points.

Or 16 stage points plus the fastest-lap bonus.

Hamlin will be eliminated from contention if he doesn’t finish fifth or higher in Stage 1.

None of this matters if Larson finishes 28th or higher, or scores at least eight stage points.

Hamlin also drives for Joe Gibbs Racing.

HOW POINTS ARE EARNED

A race win awards 55 points.

The runner-up finisher scores 35 points.

Points decrease by one for every position until 36th gets one point.

Positions 36th through 40th all score one point.

Stage points are awarded separately.

The first-place finisher in each stage gets 10 points.

Second place gets nine, third gets eight, and so on down to 10th place getting one point.

The fastest-lap bonus adds one point to a driver’s total.

Larson has been running a marathon on the side.

He is running the California International Marathon on Dec. 6.