The one mistake that could cost Kyle Larson the title at Homestead

A third NASCAR Cup Series championship is directly ahead of Kyle Larson, and he just needs to stay out of trouble at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

However, he can still lose it if he's not careful.

Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin face a very narrow path to the title, but there is still a path there.

Larson leads Bell by 67 points and Hamlin by 70, but a driver can score a maximum of 76 points at Homestead, while every starter is awarded one point.

Because Larson holds the tiebreaker over both drivers, nine points guarantees him the championship.

For context, keep in mind that Hamlin has never scored more than 43 points over Larson in any race this year (Indianapolis), while Bells' largest gain was 46 point swing at Phoenix.

Here's what each contender needs at Homestead.

HOW KYLE LARSON CAN SECURE THE TITLE

If Larson scores eight stage points, he guarantees himself at least nine total points and clinches the championship.

He can do that by finishing third in Stage 1 or 2, or as low as seventh in both stages.

Larson can clinch the title by finishing 28th or higher, regardless of stage points.

The fastest-lap bonus reduces either requirement by one point, meaning seven stage points or a 29th-place finish would also be enough.

Larson holds the championship tiebreaker over both Bell and Hamlin.

WHAT CHRISTOPHER BELL MUST DO IF LARSON FALTERS

Bell must score at least 14 stage points if he wins the race, unless he also earns the fastest-lap bonus.

Bell must win the race and score at least 14 of a possible 20 stage points, or 13 stage points plus the fastest-lap bonus.

Bell will be eliminated from contention if he doesn't finish eighth or higher in Stage 1.

None of this matters if Larson finishes 28th or higher, or scores at least eight stage points.

WHAT DENNY HAMLIN MUST DO IF LARSON FALTERS

Hamlin must score at least 17 stage points if he wins the race, unless he also earns the fastest-lap bonus.

Hamlin must win the race and score at least 17 of a possible 20 stage points, or 16 stage points plus the fastest-lap bonus.

Hamlin will be eliminated from contention if he doesn't finish fifth or higher in Stage 1.

None of this matters if Larson finishes 28th or higher, or scores at least eight stage points.

HOW POINTS ARE EARNED

A race win awards 55 points.

Runner-up finisher scores 35 points, decreasing by one for every position until 36th gets one point.

36th through 40th all score one point.

Stage points are awarded to the top 10 finishers in each of the first two stages.

The stage winner gets 10 points, second gets nine, and so on down to one point for 10th.

The fastest-lap bonus is worth one additional point.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE CHAMPIONSHIP

Larson enters Homestead with a 67-point lead over Bell and a 70-point lead over Hamlin.

Those leads look comfortable, but the math shows how quickly they can evaporate.

If Larson finishes 36th or worse in the race and scores no stage points, he earns only one point.

If Bell wins the race with maximum stage points and the fastest-lap bonus, he earns 76 points.

That would give Bell a net gain of 75 points on Larson, enough to flip the championship.

Hamlin would need a similar scenario but with an even larger swing.

The most points Hamlin has ever gained on Larson in a single race this season is 43 at Indianapolis.

The most Bell has ever gained is 46 at Phoenix.

Both would need to nearly double their best performance to overcome Larson's lead.

WHY THIS IS DRAMATIC

Larson has been one of the busiest drivers in motorsports for several years running.

He has split his time between NASCAR, sprint car racing, and the NTT IndyCar Series while mostly achieving success.

He has won dozens of races and multiple championships.

The two-time Cup Series champion has even dipped his racing shoes into IMSA and won the Rolex 24 at Daytona.

This busy schedule includes closing out 2025 with some dirt wins in Australia and an improbable doubleheader in the continental United States.

He finished sixth in a Cup Series race at Richmond Raceway, flew to Iowa, and then won the prestigious Knoxville Nationals.

USA Sports broadcasters are not concerned about the possible impact on Sunday's show.

They see this as a chance to celebrate a truly diverse driver.

They get to highlight someone delivering in this modern era, decades after icons of motorsports hung up their firesuits.

"We have spent so much time over the years being romantic about the Mario Andretti's, A.J. Foyt's, those drivers that show — Tony Stewart — the drivers that show tremendous diversity," play-by-play man Leigh Diffey said.

"Well, we don't have to romanticize about the past. Here he is. Here! He's a Renaissance man. Chili Bowl, Knoxville Nationals, two Indy 500s, his K&N title to begin with, and now on the verge of a third title. We don't have to look at the past. We should celebrate now."

Dale Jarrett added: "It's his ability to get in and drive anything with wheels and compete at the highest level and beat the best."

"(It) puts him in a different category, if you will."

"You almost... you can't talk about is he one of the best drivers in NASCAR because he's done so much outside of that. He has his own category."