Belmont Park Odds: Best Picks for Mother Goose, Dwyer & Pumpkin Pie

Belmont Park odds for Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026, center on three stakes races that will define the late fall meeting.

The card features the Listed $200,000 Dwyer Stakes, the Grade 2 $300,000 Mother Goose Stakes, and the Listed $175,000 Pumpkin Pie Stakes.

First post is 11:40 a.m. ET, with 10 races scheduled on the dirt at the Elmont, N.Y., track.

The Pumpkin Pie Stakes goes as Race 6 at 2:10 p.m. ET.

The Dwyer Stakes is Race 8 at 3:12 p.m. ET.

The Mother Goose Stakes closes the stakes portion as Race 9 at 3:43 p.m. ET.

All three races are on dirt.

The Dwyer is one mile for 3-year-olds.

The Mother Goose is 1 1/16 miles for 3-year-old fillies.

The Pumpkin Pie is 7 furlongs for fillies and mares 3 and up.

The most anticipated return of the day belongs to Ted Noffey.

Ted Noffey is the undefeated 2025 champion 2-year-old colt, trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by John Velazquez.

He drew post 6 in the Dwyer Stakes.

His morning line was not yet published as of Nov. 5, but he is the expected favorite at 8/5.

This will be his first start in exactly one year.

The Into Mischief colt has not raced since his championship season at 2.

His return against a field of 3-year-olds in a listed stakes is the kind of test that either confirms a star or raises questions.

The Dwyer field includes other contenders, but the spotlight is on whether Ted Noffey can pick up where he left off.

One race later, the Mother Goose Stakes features Bodacious Bay.

Bodacious Bay is the Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes winner, trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. and ridden by Micah Husbands.

She drew post 7 in the nine-horse field.

She is the filly to beat in the Grade 2 event.

The Mother Goose has a $300,000 purse and has historically been a prep for older filly and mare stakes later in the year.

Bodacious Bay’s Cotillion victory stamped her as one of the top 3-year-old fillies in the country.

A win here would solidify her status heading into the winter.

The Pumpkin Pie Stakes opens the stakes action at 2:10 p.m.

It is a 7-furlong sprint for fillies and mares 3 and up, with a $175,000 purse.

The field and morning line odds were published Nov. 5.

All three races are part of the America’s Day at the Races broadcast on the FOX Sports network.

The exact channel was not announced as of Nov. 5.

Betting is available through BUSR, which is offering a $1,000 Welcome Bonus for new customers.

The minimum deposit for the bonus is $50.

New customers must be 21 or older.

Terms and conditions apply.

Separately, a Canadian-based trainer is chasing his first U.S. stakes win at Belmont Park this weekend.

Dale Desruisseaux, who is based at Woodbine, will send out Highwaytothemoon in the $175,000 Carle Place Stakes.

The Carle Place is a six-furlong inner turf sprint for sophomores.

Highwaytothemoon is a Ransom the Moon gelding owned by Domenic Dilalla.

He has outperformed expectations this year.

He started his season with a neck win against elders going 5 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta at Woodbine in April.

He then ran second in the King Corrie Stakes in May and won the Queenston Stakes in June, both at seven furlongs.

Desruisseaux told reporters that he did not even have the horse eligible for the Canadian Triple Crown over the winter because he thought Highwaytothemoon was a one-turn horse.

“He took us on a ride,” Desruisseaux said.

The gelding stretched out to nine furlongs to win the Plate Trial in July.

He then ran a troubled ninth in the 10-furlong King’s Plate in August.

Desruisseaux tried him again in the second leg of the Canadian Triple Crown, the Prince of Wales Stakes at 1 3/16 miles on dirt at Fort Erie, where he finished seventh.

“I think he was that typical stereotype of a horse that you can get them to go long once,” Desruisseaux said.

“He showed us in the second leg that he didn’t want to go that far.”

Desruisseaux added that Highwaytothemoon had a rough trip in the King’s Plate.

“Turning for home, he got bounced around, and my jock said it took the air out of him,” he said.

“It didn’t give us a true feeling on the race, and that’s why we decided to go onto the next one.”

In the Prince of Wales, the horse had a good trip but did not fire turning for home.

Highwaytothemoon then turned back sharply in distance for the Sophomore Stakes at 6 1/2 furlongs on Oct. 10 over Woodbine’s Tapeta.

He ran a closing second, beaten one length by My Covenant.

Jose Campos was up for that race.

Highwaytothemoon saved ground in last of five after breaking from the inside post.

My Covenant led through a half-mile in 45.97 and held a two-length advantage at the stretch call.

Highwaytothemoon cut the corner and took aim but could not catch the winner.

The final time was 1:16.03.

Now the gelding will try turf for the first time in the Carle Place at Belmont.

The Carle Place is not one of the three stakes featured in the main odds report, but it adds depth to the weekend card.

Desruisseaux is expected to have a significant string of horses in New York this winter.

A win Saturday would be his first U.S. stakes victory.

For bettors, the key numbers to watch are the official morning lines for the Dwyer and Mother Goose.

Ted Noffey’s expected 8/5 morning line is a strong signal that the betting public views him as a heavy favorite despite the layoff.

Bodacious Bay will likely go off at short odds as well, given her Grade 1 credentials.

The Pumpkin Pie field is more wide open, with no single standout.

The track condition on Saturday will also factor into handicapping.

Belmont Park is known for its deep, tiring dirt, and the weather forecast for Nov. 7 in Elmont will be available closer to race day.

All three stakes are scheduled for the main track.

Post position advantages vary by distance at Belmont.

The one-mile Dwyer starts at the chute, so inside posts can be advantageous if the horse breaks cleanly.