Church Downs Picks: Thursday Races That Pay Big

Horse Racing Picks Today at Churchill Downs for Thursday, November 5.

Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh has released his full card analysis for the Thursday, November 5 racing program at Churchill Downs.

His selections include projected 1-2-3 finishers for all 10 races on the card.

Hersh's best bet of the day comes from Race 5.

That race is a starter allowance for horses who have won one race or less, going 6 1/2 furlongs.

His top pick is Merited, listed at 5-1 on the morning line.

Merited won his only career start, a $50,000 maiden claiming race at Churchill Downs.

Hersh wrote: "Merited did everything right winning his lone start, a $50K CD MCL, and, I thought, won pretty easily with something to spare."

He added: "No wonder they come back in the N1X starter race."

Hersh believes the horse will improve in this spot.

"He's going to improve here and be a handful — and at a fair price, too, with sloppy-track superstar Hillbilly Daydream taking so much action," Hersh wrote.

Hillbilly Daydream is listed at 8-5 on the morning line and has shown a strong preference for wet tracks.

The forecast for Thursday in Louisville calls for clear skies and a fast main track.

That could shift betting action away from Hillbilly Daydream and toward other contenders.

Hersh's second choice in Race 5 is Ghostwritten, at 6-1 on the morning line.

"All that's needed getting to GHOSTWRITTEN is putting a line through the route try last out — two previous sprints fit here," Hersh wrote.

His third choice is Big Apple Patrick, at 8-1.

"BIG APPLE PATRICK is a somewhat funky mover with a sprawling body type, but won his lone sprint start and has looked all right on work video prepping for this long-layoff comeback start," Hersh wrote.

Hersh also analyzed the other nine races on the card.

In Race 1, a maiden claiming race for fillies and mares going one mile, Hersh picked Buckeye Favorite at 5-2.

Buckeye Favorite is coming off a long layoff.

Hersh wrote: "Run a short horse after a long layoff but use waiver claiming to get a race into her before dropping down in class and winning second time back."

He added: "Know BUCKEYE FAVORITE has it in her — or had it — based on first two starts, races superior to anything anyone else in this race has produced."

His second choice is Muriel Sax at 5-1, and third is Flaming Mama at 6-1.

Race 2 is a maiden special weight for 2-year-olds going 6 furlongs.

Hersh picked Sleeper at 6-1.

Sleeper is a first-time starter purchased for just $1,000 at auction.

"A $1K sales purchase debuting for $50K? You love to see it!" Hersh wrote.

He noted that neither of the two workout videos available for Sleeper show the 59-second bullet five-furlong workout on Oct. 16.

But he liked what he saw in the available videos.

His second choice is Unknown Mischief at 8-1, another first-time starter purchased for $19,000.

"The pattern — albeit with an eyebrow-raising number of gate works — and times seem encouraging enough," Hersh wrote.

His third choice is Cougar Magnet at 5-2, who ran fourth in his debut at this class level.

Race 3 is a maiden special weight for fillies and mares 3 and up going 6 furlongs.

Hersh picked Smoted at 2-1.

Smoted won her debut by 4 1/2 lengths at Belmont at the $40,000 maiden claiming level.

Hersh described the trip as challenging.

"Went for early lead, supplanted by horse who came over to the fence too quickly, causing jock on Smoted to steady as she stutter-stepped; behind horses in tight around the turn, busted up the fence when a hole opened, quickening nicely for a dirt horse and dominating," he wrote.

He noted three workouts since that race and a good draw.

"Could be odds-on here," Hersh wrote.

His second choice is Anna Bo Banna at 6-1, and third is Cardio Cat at 5-2.

Race 4 is an allowance race going 1 1/16 miles on the turf.

Hersh picked Outfielder at 8-5.

He noted a total tactical shift last time out for Outfielder.

"Wow — total tactical shift for OUTFIELDER last out as they (apparently) very intentionally held him far off the pace — worked wonders!" Hersh wrote.

His second choice is Trouble Calling at 5-1, and third is Schwarzenegger at 6-1.

Gene McLean of The Pressbox also released his selections for the same card.

McLean uses a different format, listing picks in columns labeled A, B, C and D for each race.

In Race 5, McLean's top pick (A column) is the number 5 horse, which is Merited — matching Hersh's best bet.

McLean's betting strategy for Race 5 is: "I bet 5-1 WPS / Double WPS on 5 / Box 5-1-7."

That means he recommends win, place and show bets on Merited and the number 1 horse (Hillbilly Daydream), a double win-place-show bet on Merited, and an exacta box using horses 5, 1 and 7.

McLean's comment for Race 5 reads: "5 Goes For Barn That Wins .28% in 2nd Off Claim / Ran 2nd in Last / 6-1 ML = 'Upset'."

Merited is trained by a barn that wins 28% of the time in second-off-the-claim situations.

McLean's overall statistics for the meet will be updated later.

The Pressbox article was published on Nov. 5, 2026, at 11:52 a.m. Eastern.