Expert picks for Churchill Downs Thursday races

McLean’s Selections for Churchill Downs for Thursday, Nov. 5 have been released.

Gene McLean, president and publisher of The Pressbox, has posted his full card analysis for the nine-race program at the historic Louisville track.

The selections include win, place, and show picks for every race, plus exacta and trifecta strategies.

McLean also provides detailed comments on each runner, citing trainer statistics, rider changes, and recent form.

His 2026 statistics are listed as “to be updated” in the source material.

McLean began his professional career in 1977 as a sportswriter and columnist for the Lexington Herald-Leader.

He won the prestigious “Sportswriter of the Year” honor in 1985.

Now the President and Publisher of The Pressbox, McLean sets the vision for the site and still finds time to handicap races, interview trainers and keep his finger on the pulse of the industry.

Here is the full breakdown of McLean’s selections for Thursday, Nov. 5 at Churchill Downs.

RACE 1

McLean’s picks: 3-6-7.

His betting strategy: bet 3-6 WPS or box 3-6-7.

His comment: “With Scratch of 2, I Divert to 3 / Trainer Wins .02% of 53 Starts = Double Ugh.”

RACE 2

McLean’s picks: 4-8-7.

His betting strategy: bet 5 WPS or key 5 over/under 4-8-7.

His comment: “With Scratches of 6-2, 5 Looks Best / Apprentice Rider / Ran 2nd in Only Start.”

RACE 3

McLean’s picks: 1-11.

His betting strategy: bet 2 WPS or box 2-8 Stern or key 2-8 over/under 6-3-7.

His comment: “2 Ran 2nd in Last Out — By Many / But Could Be Tough Here / Loves CD.”

RACE 4

McLean’s picks: 10.

His betting strategy: bet 1 WPS or double WPS or box 1-5-7 or key 1-5-7 over/under 6.

His comment: “1 Has Been Off, But Barn Wins .17% in Returns / Rider Wins .33% For Barn.”

RACE 5

McLean’s picks: 3.

His betting strategy: bet 5-1 WPS or double WPS on 5 or box 5-1-7.

His comment: “5 Goes For Barn That Wins .28% in 2nd Off Claim / Ran 2nd in Last / 6-1 ML = Upset.”

This is also the race that VSiN handicapper Marcus Hersh identified as his best bet of the day.

Hersh picked Merited as the top choice in Race 5.

He wrote: “Merited did everything right winning his lone start, a $50K CD MCL, and, I thought, won pretty easily with something to spare.”

Hersh added: “No wonder they come back in the N1X starter race. He’s going to improve here and be a handful – and at a fair price, too.”

RACE 6

McLean’s picks: 2-8.

His betting strategy: bet 10 WPS or double WPS on 10 or key 10 over/under 3-9-11-8.

His comment: “10 Gets Hot Apprentice / Barn Wins .35% When Drops Off claim / Ran 3rd vs Tougher.”

RACE 7

McLean’s picks: 6-3-7.

His betting strategy: bet 11 WPS or box 11-5-2 or key 11-5-2 over/under 9-8.

His comment: “11 Drops 2 Classes & Barn Wins .24% Then / Barn 0-for-19 This Meet = Ugh.”

RACE 8

McLean’s picks: 4.

His betting strategy: bet 7-1 WPS or double WPS on 1 or box 7-1 Stern.

His comment: “7 Is 1st Timer / Barn Wins .29% With Debut Runners / Breeding Top Notch.”

RACE 9

McLean’s picks: 1-5-7.

His betting strategy: bet 1 WP or double win or box 1-8 Stern x 2.

His comment: “1 Well Bet in Debut / Won Debut Easily / Could Be a Good One.”

RACE 10

McLean’s picks: 6-1.

His betting strategy: bet 6-1 WPS or double WPS on 6 or box 6-1-8 Stern.

His comment: “6 Gets High % Rider Back / Last 7 Days, Rider = 7-3-2 in 24 Mounts / Well Bet in Debut.”

McLean’s selections come as Churchill Downs continues its Fall Meet, which runs through late November.

The track is located in Louisville, Kentucky, and is home to the Kentucky Derby, the most famous horse race in the United States.

Churchill Downs typically races four to five days per week during its meets, with post times varying by day.

Thursday racing often features a mix of maiden races, allowance races, and claiming events.

Maiden races are for horses that have never won a race.

Allowance races are for horses that have won but are not yet ready for stakes competition.

Claiming races allow any horse to be purchased for a set price before the race runs.

McLean’s picks include analysis of trainer percentages, rider statistics, and class drops.

A class drop occurs when a horse moves from a higher-priced race to a lower-priced one, often signaling confidence from the trainer.

A class rise is the opposite and can indicate a trainer is testing a horse’s ability.

McLean also tracks “off the claim” statistics, which measure how a trainer performs with a horse they recently purchased via the claiming box.

Apprentice riders, or “bug boys,” receive a weight allowance that can help a horse carry less weight.

Hot apprentices are those riding at a high win percentage and often attract betting action.

McLean’s comment on Race 6 highlights a hot apprentice rider for horse number 10.

The source material also notes related stories published alongside McLean’s selections.

One story covers the return of jockeys Florent Geroux and Jon Court at Churchill Downs.

Another story covers the Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale, where a mare in-foal to Flightline brought $1 million.

Turfway Park announced a record $5.477 million in stakes for its winter/spring meets.

Jockey Flavien Prat captured the 2026 Bill Shoemaker Award.

McLean’s selections are published on The Pressbox, a horse racing news and handicapping website.

The Pressbox covers major tracks including Churchill Downs, Keeneland, Saratoga, and Gulfstream Park.

Readers can find McLean’s picks daily during major meets.

His selections include not just top picks but also betting strategies and commentary on each horse’s chances.

The format allows bettors to see which horses McLean considers win contenders, place contenders, and show contenders.

Box bets cover all combinations of selected horses in exactas, trifectas, or superfectas.

Key bets place one horse on top of a group of others in exactas or trifectas.

WPS bets cover win, place, and show — the three ways a horse can finish in the money.

McLean’s picks for Thursday include several horses with strong trainer and rider connections.

His comment on Race 5 highlights a barn that wins at 28% second off the claim.

That horse, number 5, is listed at 6-1 on the morning line, which McLean calls an “upset” price.

His comment on Race 8 notes a first-time starter with top-notch breeding.

First-time starters are always a gamble, but trainers with strong debut percentages offer some confidence.

McLean’s comment on Race 9 notes a horse that was well bet in its debut and won easily.

He adds that the horse “could be a good one.”