Jeremiah Smith Heisman Odds Soar After Malachi Toney Injury

A major shockwave was sent through the college football world on Wednesday night, as Miami Hurricanes star receiver Malachi Toney reportedly is undergoing surgery on a high-ankle sprain and will be sidelined for Week 10 against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

The surgery is expected to sideline Toney for about four weeks, giving him a chance to return for the College Football Playoff.

However, the No. 1-ranked Hurricanes are major underdogs against Notre Dame, and oddsmakers have altered the Heisman odds with the star receiver set to miss multiple regular-season contests.

Toney was No. 3 in the odds to win the Heisman this season behind his teammate Darian Mensah and Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith.

In fact, Mensah had moved to the favorite in the market after a big win over the North Carolina Tar Heels in Week 9.

Toney caught two touchdowns in that game, improving on an already impressive campaign.

For the season, Toney has 73 catches (more than Smith) for 1,027 yards and 13 scores (the same amount as Smith).

He has a real case as the top receiver in college football, but he’s no longer in the mix to win the Heisman.

Plus, Smith has jumped back ahead of Mensah in the latest odds.

THE NEW 2026 HEISMAN TROPHY ODDS

Jeremiah Smith: +160

Darian Mensah: +165

CJ Carr: +550

Trinidad Chambliss: +950

Sam Leavitt: +3500

Gunner Stockton: +4000

Drew Mestemaker: +6000

Gio Lopez: +8000

Jesse Legree: +8000

No other player has shorter than +10000 odds to win the Heisman.

Earlier in the week, I wrote about CJ Carr and Notre Dame in the Heisman market, as there’s a real case for the quarterback to take the top spot if the team beats Mensah and the Hurricanes on Saturday.

It’s likely that whichever team wins that game will have the Heisman favorite unless Smith (who has failed to reach 100 yards in three straight weeks) has a big game for the Buckeyes with a backup quarterback under center.

Carr has thrown for 18 touchdowns and just one interception, tossing a pair of scores in an easy win over Navy in Week 9.

There’s a chance Notre Dame is the No. 1 team in the country if it beats Miami in Week 10, and that would do wonders for Carr’s odds to win the Heisman.

It’s interesting to see that Toney’s injury also impacted Mensah’s Heisman odds, and it’s pretty clear that oddsmakers expect the Miami offense to take a hit as a whole.

SMITH'S PENALTY PROBLEM

Smith enters Saturday’s matchup against the Ducks ranked fifth nationally or better in receptions (62), receiving yards (1,067) and receiving touchdowns (13) despite the junk defenses deployed against him.

But he also ranks tied for dead last in pass interference penalties drawn (0) despite the fingers DBs dig into his jersey.

This weekend marks one year since the last PI flag thrown in Smith’s favor, which occurred during last year’s Week 11 win against Purdue.

Since then, defenders have either been too polite to tug Smith’s jersey mid-pass or referees have been too shy to flag them for doing it.

And if you’ve seen the non-calls in question, you know this review isn’t a close one.

During last month’s 19-15 win over Indiana, for example, Smith was kicking dust in Indiana safety Preston Zachman’s face on a deep route during the second quarter.

But then Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin hung a pass in the air long enough for Zachman to close the gap, and Zachman slammed Smith onto the ground without playing the ball.

In most circles, this would count as a penalty.

But within Smith’s radius, the rules change.

As Ohio State coach Ryan Day told reporters the following week, Smith’s 6-foot-4, 222-pound frame fools officials into allowing physicality.

“A tug or a pull or a bump on Jeremiah based on almost anybody else in the country would look a lot different,” Day said then.

“So a foul is a foul. They call it the LeBron rule, the Shaq rule, whatever that was when it was in the NBA; I think we’ve got to recognize those types of things. So that’s all being communicated.”

Actually, we called them the “Jordan Rules” first, and teams have used them to slow stars since before Smith’s first tough whistle.

During the late 80s, former Pistons coach Chuck Daly devised the famous gameplan to defend Bulls star Michael Jordan.

Or, more accurately, to wear him down.

Daly once detailed the plan to Sports Illustrated: Whenever Jordan touched the ball, Detroit sent a double team.

When he cut or dribbled past his defender, they hammered him.

Smith is facing a similar gauntlet, but without the whistle.

QUARTERBACK SITUATION

Smith scored a touchdown in Ohio State's upset loss to USC last week.

Smith's quest got tougher when Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin suffered an injury that coach Ryan Day said would cost the signal caller several weeks.

Smith will still be catching passes from backup quarterback Luke Fahey when the Buckeyes take on Oregon on Nov. 7.

The Buckeyes suffered their second loss of the season against the Trojans and received a No. 12 ranking in the first College Football Playoff top 25 list.

THE BIGGER PICTURE

Oregon coach Dan Lanning has a plan to stop Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith this weekend, but he needs to run it past the refs first.

“We’re gonna see if we can play with 12 (players),” Lanning joked this week.

Or at least, we think he’s joking.

The way opponents have double-, triple- and quadruple-teamed Smith this season, you never know.

And the way officials judge the rules against him, Oregon might be able to bend them.