Kyle Larson’s title could slip away at Homestead—here’s how

Kyle Larson enters Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 67-point lead over Christopher Bell and a 70-point lead over Denny Hamlin.

A third NASCAR Cup Series championship is directly ahead of him.

He just needs to stay out of trouble.

But trouble finds drivers at Homestead every year.

And the numbers show that Larson can still lose it if he’s not careful.

The maximum points a driver can score in a single race is 76.

Every starter is awarded one point just for showing up.

Larson holds the tiebreaker over both Bell and Hamlin.

That means nine points guarantees him the championship.

For context, Hamlin has never scored more than 43 points over Larson in any race this year.

That happened at Indianapolis.

Bell’s largest gain was a 46-point swing at Phoenix.

Here is what each contender needs at Homestead.

HOW KYLE LARSON CAN SECURE THE TITLE

If Larson scores eight stage points, he guarantees himself at least nine total points and clinches the championship.

He can do that by finishing third in Stage 1 or Stage 2.

Or as low as seventh in both stages.

Larson can also clinch the title by finishing 28th or higher, regardless of stage points.

The fastest-lap bonus reduces either requirement by one point.

That means seven stage points or a 29th-place finish would also be enough.

Larson holds the championship tiebreaker over both Bell and Hamlin.

So even if they tie him on points, he wins.

WHAT CHRISTOPHER BELL MUST DO IF LARSON FALTERS

Bell must score at least 14 stage points if he wins the race.

Unless he also earns the fastest-lap bonus.

Then he needs 13 stage points plus the fastest-lap bonus.

Bell will be eliminated from contention if he doesn’t finish eighth or higher in Stage 1.

None of this matters if Larson finishes 28th or higher.

Or if Larson scores at least eight stage points.

Bell’s path is narrow.

He needs a near-perfect finale and significant trouble for Larson.

WHAT DENNY HAMLIN MUST DO IF LARSON FALTERS

Hamlin must score at least 17 stage points if he wins the race.

Unless he also earns the fastest-lap bonus.

Then he needs 16 stage points plus the fastest-lap bonus.

Hamlin will be eliminated from contention if he doesn’t finish fifth or higher in Stage 1.

None of this matters if Larson finishes 28th or higher.

Or if Larson scores at least eight stage points.

Hamlin’s path is even narrower than Bell’s.

He needs a perfect race and a disaster for Larson.

HOW POINTS ARE EARNED

A race win awards 55 points.

The runner-up finisher scores 35 points.

The points decrease by one for every position until 36th gets one point.

Drivers in 36th through 40th all score one point.

Stage points are awarded separately.

The top 10 finishers in each of the first two stages earn points.