Mets odds to land Tarik Skubal just dropped

The New York Mets are now the betting favorites to sign two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal.

Bovada released updated next-team odds on Thursday that put the Mets at +110.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are right behind at +140.

The Chicago Cubs (+600) and San Diego Padres (+900) are the only other teams in single digits.

The New York Yankees sit at +1200.

The Detroit Tigers, the team that drafted and developed Skubal, are +1500.

The Los Angeles Angels are +2000.

The Toronto Blue Jays round out the listed field at +2500.

Skubal, 29, became a free agent after the 2026 season concluded.

He was traded from the Detroit Tigers to the Los Angeles Dodgers at the 2026 trade deadline.

In 2½ months with the Dodgers, Skubal posted a 2.89 ERA across 12 starts.

He helped the Dodgers reach the National League Championship Series.

Now he is the single most coveted pitcher on the open market.

ESPN projects Skubal’s average contract at eight years and $355 million, a $44.6 million average annual value.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale said on FoulTerritoryTV that any bid for Skubal must start above Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325 million deal with the Dodgers.

“Everybody’s gotta start a bid over that, they’re not gonna go under $325M, so we’ll see if it hits $400M,” Nightengale said.

He added that the overall contract record belongs to Juan Soto, who signed a 15-year, $765 million contract with the Mets in 2024.

Skubal is represented by agent Scott Boras.

Boras also represented Soto in that record-setting negotiation.

Jorge Castillo of ESPN, speaking on the Baseball Tonight Podcast, called the Mets “the favorites” to land Skubal.

Castillo compared the situation directly to the Soto sweepstakes.

“If Steve Cohen wants Skubal, he will sign Skubal,” Castillo said.

“Skubal is another Scott Boras client, just like Juan Soto. The Yankees went up to 16 years, $760 million, and the Mets went a little higher over 15 years. And I think that will happen in this situation.”

Castillo acknowledged that Skubal might take less money to play elsewhere.

He noted that the Mets finished last in the National League East in 2026 despite carrying the second-highest payroll in baseball.

“This is the second most expensive payroll in baseball the last couple years, and they have not reached the postseason. They need to reach the postseason,” Castillo said.

That kind of pressure could drive Mets owner Steve Cohen to be aggressive.

Cohen has already shown he is willing to outbid every other owner.

His 15-year, $765 million offer to Soto proved that.

But the Dodgers have a different kind of leverage.

ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez reported that Skubal would “love” to return to Los Angeles.

“He truly seemed to relish his 2½ months in Los Angeles. He loved the culture, particularly being among so many established, veteran players who were singularly focused on winning,” Gonzalez wrote.

“He became besties with Blake Snell, was awed by the organization’s resources and, overall, seemed to fit in seamlessly.”

Gonzalez added that Skubal values familiarity after spending his entire career with the Tigers.

“I do think Tarik Skubal is the type of guy who values familiarity, somebody who came up in the Tigers organization and only knew that place,” Gonzalez said.

“I don’t know that he wants to go through change again. But having said that, Scott Boras is his agent. He’s going to chase a record-setting contract. I don’t think there’s any doubt that he’s going to get it.”

Boras himself hinted at the Dodgers’ advantage shortly after the trade deadline.

“It’s great for both the Dodgers and for Tarik that they both get to know one another quite well and determine more about what the future may hold for them,” Boras told the California Post.

“There’s nothing like getting to know how a franchise works and your role in it.”

Nightengale said geography could also play a role.

“Now if a few teams are in the same ballpark [for Skubal], I would think the teams out West have an advantage since Skubal lives out here and everything,” Nightengale said.

“I would think that if the Dodgers are close, he goes back to L.A.”

Nightengale was also asked about the possibility of a mystery team entering the bidding.

He dismissed the idea.

“I don’t think so. I mean, would the San Francisco Giants be a mystery team? I don’t think so. They got the money. That’s possible. But I don’t see a small-market, mid-market team jumping in. I know someone threw out the White Sox earlier, that was kind of laughed at,” Nightengale said.

“So no, I don’t think we’ll have a mystery team. When you’re talking about that kind of money, you’re really only talking about three or four teams that are going to be in this thing. It’s just two rich for a lot of teams’ financial comfort.”

The bidding is complicated by a looming league-wide deadline.

Major League Baseball’s collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1, 2026.

If no new deal is reached, a lockout could freeze all player movement.

That means Skubal and Boras have a narrow window to negotiate before the market shuts down.

A lockout would also affect how teams allocate their spending.

Clubs may be more aggressive before the deadline if they fear a long work stoppage.

Or they may hold back, waiting for new rules that could change the financial landscape.

Either way, the next few weeks will determine where one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball history lands.

Skubal won the American League Cy Young Award in 2023 with the Tigers.

He repeated as a Cy Young winner in 2025.

Over his career, Skubal has a 3.16 ERA with more than 1,000 strikeouts.

He throws a four-seam fastball that averages 96 mph, a slider, a changeup and a curveball.

His 2025 season was his best: a 2.39 ERA over 32 starts with 228 strikeouts in 188 innings.