Mets pivot to Clay Holmes or Michael King if Skubal falls through

The New York Mets have made it clear they want Tarik Skubal.

The left-handed ace, who won the Cy Young Award in 2024 and posted a 2.39 ERA over 32 starts, is the top pitcher on the free-agent market this winter.

But the competition is fierce.

The Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, and even the Los Angeles Angels are all in the mix, according to multiple reports.

And the Detroit Tigers, the team that traded Skubal at the 2025 deadline, are still trying — but waiting for a discount that analysts say will never come.

That leaves the Mets with a problem.

If Skubal signs elsewhere, where do they turn?

According to a segment on "The Mets Pod" on SNY, the answer might be Clay Holmes or Michael King.

Both pitchers are free agents this offseason.

Both have unusual career paths that make them a gamble.

And both are being discussed as realistic fallback options for a team that refuses to enter 2027 without a frontline starter.

Here is what the Mets would be getting in each pitcher — and why the front office is looking at them at all.

CLAY HOLMES: FROM CLOSER TO STARTER?

Clay Holmes spent most of his career as a reliever.

He was an All-Star closer for the New York Yankees in 2024, saving 30 games with a 2.77 ERA.

But in 2025, the Yankees moved him to the rotation.

The experiment worked better than most expected.

Holmes made 28 starts, threw 162 innings, and posted a 3.41 ERA.

His ground-ball rate remained elite — over 60 percent, among the best in baseball.

His strikeout rate dropped slightly, from 28 percent as a reliever to 23 percent as a starter.

But his walk rate improved, and he showed he could hold his stuff deep into games.

Scouts have mixed opinions on whether he can repeat that performance over a full season.

The Mets, however, seem willing to bet he can.

Holmes turns 33 in March 2027.

He is not a long-term building block.

But on a three- or four-year deal, he could slot into the middle of a rotation and eat innings with a heavy sinker and a sweeper that generates weak contact.

He is not Skubal.

He is not a Cy Young candidate.

But he is durable, he has a track record of getting outs, and he would cost significantly less than the $350 million Skubal is expected to command.

MICHAEL KING: THE TRADE PIECE WHO BECAME AN ACE

Michael King's story is even more unusual.

He was a swingman for the Yankees for three seasons, bouncing between the bullpen and the rotation.

Then, in December 2023, he was traded to the San Diego Padres as part of the package for Juan Soto.

Most people viewed King as a secondary piece in that deal.

But in San Diego, he became something else.

In 2024, his first full season as a starter, King threw 173 innings with a 2.95 ERA and 210 strikeouts.

He followed that up in 2025 with a 3.12 ERA over 180 innings, striking out 198 batters.

His fastball sits at 94 mph, but his sweeper and changeup both generate whiff rates above 35 percent.

He is 31 years old, younger than Holmes, and has fewer miles on his arm.

He also has a history of success against the National League East, having faced the division regularly as a Yankee.

The Padres are expected to make a strong push to re-sign him.

But if he hits the open market, King could command a deal in the range of five years and $120 million to $140 million.

That is a fraction of what Skubal will get.

And the Mets, who already have a $765 million payroll commitment for 2027, need to be smart about where they spend.

WHY THE METS ARE LOOKING AT THIS PIVOT

The Mets are not a small-market team.

Owner Steve Cohen has shown he is willing to spend — and spend big.

They signed Juan Soto to a 15-year, $800 million contract in December 2025.

They gave Brandon Nimmo an eight-year, $162 million deal in 2022.

They have the highest payroll in baseball.

But even Cohen has limits.

Paying Skubal $40 million per year for a decade would push the Mets past $300 million in annual payroll before filling out the rest of the roster.

And Skubal, while dominant, is a pitcher.

Pitchers get hurt.

Pitchers age poorly.

A 10-year contract for a pitcher is almost always a bad bet.

The Mets know this.

That is why, according to the SNY report, they are already preparing a Plan B.

Holmes and King are not flashy.

Neither is a household name.

But both are proven major-league starters who can give a team 160 to 180 innings with an ERA in the low 3.00s.

In a market where Skubal is the only true ace available, that might be the best the Mets can do without overpaying.

WHAT THE EXPERTS ARE SAYING

Kiley McDaniel of ESPN recently listed the Mets as one of seven teams expected to pursue Skubal.